Bold truth: predicting a Pirates breakthrough is a longer shot than most people admit, but that’s exactly what we’re chasing this season. Welcome to a fresh, beginner-friendly rewrite of Joe Starkey’s Mailbag, keeping the core ideas intact while sharpened for clarity and readability. And yes, we’ll keep the same spirit—conversational, a touch playful, with thoughtful takes that invite debate.
Joe Starkey’s Mailbag: Why can’t the Pirates win 85 games?
You ask. I answer. It’s time for a weekly Q&A mailbag that appears Tuesdays at TribLive.com. Most questions come via X, but you can also reach me at jraystarkey@gmail.com. Let’s dive in.
Frank from Cranberry, via email: Joe — hope the colonoscopy went well. The prep sucks. Anyway, you and Donny Football (now baseball?) are the two best on The Fan! I have a question for the mailbag. Given the Pirates’ offseason activity so far, I’m excited for the season. I think this team, if it avoids major injuries to key players, can win in the 81–87 range and contend for a playoff spot. What do you think?
Starkey: There’s a huge difference between 81 and 87 wins—likely playoff contention or not. Thanks for the kind words.
And yes, if we can send people to space on joy rides and clone humans, surely we can figure out a better colonoscopy prep than guzzling a keg of Gatorade mixed with Miralax for 10 hours and ending up with bigger blowouts than the 1960 World Series. Is there a single-pill solution? A supercharged drink that does the trick?
Anyway, glad everything went well.
To your question about odds: Vegas has the Pirates’ over/under around 77.5 wins. That feels too low to me.
FanGraphs has the Pirates at 82 wins, finishing second to the Cubs in the NL Central. PECOTA expects 80 wins and third place—about 10 games behind the Cubs—with only a 26% playoff chance.
In other words, most projections aren’t counting on a big leap upward or a playoff berth.
I disagree. I’m pegging them at 85–77 with a wild-card shot.
I believe Konnor Griffin will be the supporting star to Paul Skenes, like Malkin to Crosby. It’s remarkable to think the Pirates might have two generational talents on the roster. I even heard baseball analyst Keith Law compare Griffin to Willie Mays at shortstop and call him the best prospect since Mike Trout. No pressure.
Two big keys: the young rotation beyond Skenes, plus internal improvements from Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. If those steps don’t happen, the Pirates are headed for the high 70s. If they do—and with the lineup upgrades and Griffin’s arrival (likely about three weeks into the season)—we could be talking 85 wins, Skenes in Game 1 of a playoff series. Imagine that. Truly unbelievable.
J, @Crosslands895: ESPN has the Penguins ranked eighth in their Power Rankings. Would you call this team a contender? P.S. My family has coyote-hunting dogs, so if you ever face that problem, you’re covered.
Starkey: Coyotes around Green Tree are wild to me—great reason to keep a watchful eye on the neighborhood. And yes, I might call in your dog from the bullpen when needed.
Meanwhile, the Penguins—what a story so far. Are they contenders? Not yet, I’d say, though a deadline move or two could change that. Even if not, they could surprise in a first-round upset, and maybe someone knocks off Tampa Bay, the team to beat.
Josh Howard, @jhow2687: Parades and attendance always spark debate. Do you think a Pirates World Series parade would outdraw the Steelers or Penguins celebrations?
Starkey: Interesting angle, Dr. Howard. If anything, I’d expect similar turnout to those parades rather than dramatically higher. And no, this year isn’t the year for a Pirates parade, but I’ve long predicted a World Series title in 2027, and I’m sticking with that.
Geoffrey Lewis Music, @glewismusic: G’day Joe! My real last name is Griffin, and I’m thrilled about Konnor Griffin joining the Buccos. Between you, Austin, and Bob, who has the most famous namesake?
Starkey: I suppose mine carries more fame—Ringo Starr’s real name is Richard Starkey. Austin Bechtold and Bob Pompeani don’t quite reach that level.
Ryan Chepkevich, @oofoof8: Who will lead the Pirates in home runs, RBIs, and hits? I’m thinking Cruz, O’Hearn, and Cruz again. Let’s go Bucs!
Starkey: If Cruz leads in hits, that’s great—or worrying. I’d bet on Cruz for home runs, Ozuna for RBIs, and Konnor Griffin for hits.
(Activate Kirk Cousins voice): You like that?
Chris Barbre, @Steelers_ChrisB: Which player do you think the Steelers will re-sign and/or extend first before free agency?
Starkey: We’re due for Cam Heyward’s annual contract dance, right? Expect a sweetened deal for Heyward and a new contract for Chris Boswell. I’d also like to see Kenneth Gainwell re-signed. As for the quarterback, signs point to Aaron Rodgers returning, so he might be the first major extension the team ticks off the list.
Burke O’Toole, @BurkeMan513: Dr. Starkey, who will lead the Pirates in homers this season?
Starkey: I already said it: Oneil Cruz with around 31 homers tops the team."
Matt Choate, @mattchoate: With baseball shifting toward relief pitchers and smaller benches, could MLB expand rosters to include more players? Might be a 2027 CBA topic. Cutch would love that.
Starkey: Honestly, I’m not that invested in roster expansion. Even if it happens, you can’t field two DH-only players on the same roster.
Pete Raybar, @PRaybar: Who are your all-time favorite national play-by-play announcers in each sport?
Baseball: Vin Scully
Football: Pat Summerall
College football: Keith Jackson
Basketball: Marv Albert
Hockey: Doc Emrick
College basketball: Dick Enberg, though that’s a tough call.
Ryan Jones, @RyanJon08044492: Steelers, Penguins, Pirates… who’s the next team to win a championship?
Starkey: There’s a new answer: the Pirates, in 2027.
J P, @JoeyPicksIt: Should the Pirates invite Will Craig back to spring training to work with the infielders?
Starkey: Absolutely. You never know when old-school reliability might help the hydra of modern defense.
Steve, @Steve3209839331: Do the Steelers realize they need multiple receivers, or are they going to roll with the same group for a third straight year without real weapons?
Starkey: I’ve written about Omar Khan’s ongoing quest for receivers—worth a read if you want the context. The gist: they need options beyond what they have now.
Ed Helinski, @MrEd315: What do you like and dislike about the Pirates so far, and what’s your take on their payroll spending spree?
Starkey: It’s still early—spring training just started. Highlights: Skenes and Griffin look exciting. The payroll move isn’t reckless, but it signals intent to win more than in recent years. It’s a modest but meaningful step forward.
David Barndollar, @DBarndollar: If TJ Watt hit the open market today, what contract would he command?
Starkey: A top-tier pass rusher will command well north of $30 million per year, likely not reaching $41 million, given the current market. Still, he’d be highly sought after.
Roman Wozniak III, @Yinzerpaloozast: Joe Cherington isn’t cooking, but is this more about being competitive or keeping Skenes around? And is it close enough to do so?
Starkey: It could be MLB nudging the Pirates to spend more and show real competitiveness. It might also be owner Bob Nutting recognizing that investing could bring fans back to the ballpark. It’s unlikely to keep Skenes past his free-agent date, but we’ll see what the season brings.
Not to be a downer, but that’s the current vibe.
If you’d like this rewritten version in a different tone or with more or fewer examples, I can adjust. Would you prefer a punchier, more provocative version that leans heavier into controversy, or a strictly balanced, straightforward recap that stays neutral?
